The Sound of the Police

If you're one of those people who did not enjoy my last blog about Afghanistan's complexity then you're sure to like this one. Here I'll write like your standard editorialist and reduce this country's malaise into the crisis du jour.

Today we're serving a big steaming pile of police. Afghan Uniform Police to be specific. It used to be the Afghan National Police until the Wizard of Oz in Kabul - or perhaps DC - decided to plus up security by adding militias called arbakai. So now we have uniform policemen and some yokels with AK-47s.

And why are we doing this? Several reasons, it turns out - none of them particularly comforting.

First, because we promised some people we'd begin withdrawing troops in 2011 (this year, in case you don't have a calendar handy). That means we need someone to fill the void and we can't train AUP fast enough. Someone hit on the great solution of arming young men with few qualifications, a minimum of training, and close to no oversight. Problem solved.

Second, people hate (HATE) the AUP. They're poorly trained. They aren't motivated. They take bribes. They harass locals. Some are even Taliban. They smell. Okay okay, I added that last one. The rest I've heard straight from locals on numerous occasions. To address these concerns, the thinking is, we use locals with "skin the game" and a knowledge of the area, pay them a token salary, and watch the Taliban disintegrate. Problem solved.

Third, there's already a strong tradition of local defense in Afghan culture. As I mentioned earlier, bands of arbakai have been around for centuries. Afghanistan has never enjoyed a long period with strong central leadership so each area developed the institutions necessary to provide for their own defense. Now the US can co-opt this phenomenon and use it our advantage. Problem solved.

It's not all bad with the cops here. A lot of them work hard and just want the violence to die down. Most (read 90%) are stuck in a crappy situation not of their own making. But that 10% man, they're freaking AWFUL. And the police are a fascinating illustration of the problem of providing security when you don't know who to trust.

What's the real solution here? I am not the Wizard dispensing answers from behind the veil - I can't answer that. What I can tell you is the organizations needed to provide security in Afghanistan probably can't be developed in the timeline we're stuck with. Keep your eyes and ears open for timeline extensions, lowered expectations, or a depressing mix of the two.

Remember when I said I'd make this problem simple? yeah, That was a lie.